野火擴散範圍機率之預測方法及其系統

專利類型

發明

專利國別 (專利申請國家)

中華民國

專利申請案號

109141197

專利證號

I 739674

專利獲證名稱

野火擴散範圍機率之預測方法及其系統

專利所屬機關 (申請機關)

國立清華大學

獲證日期

2021/09/11

技術說明

本發明提供一種野火擴散範圍機率之預測方法, 用以預測野火於網路之擴散範圍機率。其建立網路之節點及連結節點之鏈接; 根據網路之節點及鏈接建立標準化相鄰矩陣; 根據各節點之分支度計算各節點之排序值, 並找出各節點之狀態; 根據各節點之排序值及狀態計算各節點之狀態排序值與狀態機率; 以節點中最大之狀態排序值決定出野火擴散之起始節點及對應起始節點之狀態; 以動態二進位樹搜尋法列舉出所有對應起始節點之狀態, 並根據狀態機率計算出對應起始節點之擴散範圍機率。藉此, 可快速、簡單、有效且可靠地預測網路內野火之擴散範圍機率。 A predicting method of a plurality of wildfire propagation areas is proposed to predict an occurrence probability of the wildfire propagation areas in a network. The predicting method of the wildfire propagation areas includes a network establishing step, a normalized adjacency matrix establishing step, a node ranking value calculating step, a state ranking value calculating step, a beginning node determining step and an occurrence probability calculating step. The network establishing step is performed to construct a plurality of nodes and a plurality of links connected to the nodes in the network. The normalized adjacency matrix establishing step is performed to construct a normalized adjacency matrix according the nodes and the links of the network. The node ranking value calculating step is performed to calculate a ranking value of each of the nodes according to a degree of each of the nodes, and find out a plurality of states of each of the nodes. The degree represents the number of the links connected to each of the nodes. The state ranking value calculating step is performed to calculate a state ranking value and a state probability of each of the nodes according to the ranking value and the states of each of the nodes. The beginning node determining step is performed to determine a beginning node of the wildfire propagation areas and the states corresponding to the beginning node according to a largest one of the state ranking values of the nodes. The occurrence probability calculating step is performed to enumerate all the states corresponding to the beginning node by a dynamic binary-addition tree algorithm, and calculate the occurrence probability of the wildfire propagation areas corresponding to the beginning node according to the state probability. Therefore, the present disclosure can be served as a fast, simple, effective and reliable tool in predicting the occurrence probability of the wildfire propagation areas.

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